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Wind Trends

Wind revenue in 2009 grew to $63.5 billion on the back of 37,500 installed megawatts; 13,000 of those megawatts — more than two thirds — were installed in China.

By 2019, Clean Edge is forecasting a $114.9 billion wind market — only slightly larger than the biofuel market at that time.

With a third of the installations going to China, wind companies operating there did best in the market, while European stalwarts continued to stutter.

All of a sudden, companies like China Wind Systems (NASDAQ: CWS), A-Power Generation Systems (NASDAQ: APWR), and American Superconductor (NASDAQ: AMSC) are blowing away the old go-tos like Vestas (COP: VWS), Gamesa (MCE: GAM), and Nordex (XETRA: NDX1).

It’s all about being in the hot market… And they simply weren’t in China to the extent they should have been.

I look for a rebound in those big turbine suppliers and the U.S and European markets continue to chug along. And I also look for installers operating in hot markets to do well.

Solar Trends

Solar revenue came in at $30.7 billion for the year.

This is the first year since 2000 that annual solar revenues have fallen. But that’s a better long-term indicator than it is a short-term problem.

The solar industry is coming of age. And, as in all industries, prices fall when that happens. Economies of scale are created, and so on.

So while solar installations were actually up in 2009, revenue fell just a bit. Solar is still forecast to be the biggest grower of the three, with a 222% increase in annual revenue to $98.9 billion by 2019.

As more panels continue to be installed and prices continue to fall, the companies producing at the lowest cost will make the most money. Margin is the name of the game at this point.

We’ve already seen Chinese companies undercut their European and North American competitors, with many setting up sales and production offices on U.S. shores.

The Chinese now account for 50% of all solar sales. I don’t see this trend abating anytime soon. You can see how investors have reacted, with First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and one-time

Regards,

Don